19 August 2008

En vous priant de recevoir mes plus sincères condoléances

Today, 10 French soldiers were killed in Afghanistan, fighting Taliban forces. My sincere thanks to those brave brothers and their equally brave families. The world is temporarily darker for these men's departure, but they gave themselves for a brighter future.

Some thoughts on the attack:

Click through to see a map of the region, and you'll notice 1) how close this is to the Pakistani border and 2) the homogeneity of landscape and demography in this border region (okay, you might not see the homogeneity of demography, but it's fairly uncontroversial to suggest that the entire border region is similar. Yeesh).

With the rising success in Iraq becoming conventional wisdom, attentions are turning to Afghanistan. As we begin to focus forces into the region, we'll begin to see more news from the region as journalists are redeployed. (Kudos to the Times reporter for a good article here, btw.) It think it's important now to reiterate the legion differences between Iraq and Afghanistan.

A "surge" like we had in Iraq will not bear the same fruit. The cultures between the two nations are different, the geography and topography are different, the sources of violence are different. Iraq was and is a well-established society with a strong infrastructure and a history of civilization. Nearly none of that is true in the rural hodge-podge that is Afghanistan. We can't win this war like we did in Iraq, with a steady presence of US and coalition troops keeping the peace and allowing the society to heal.

Let's head this one off at the pass: Afghanistan isn't embroiled in ethnic conflict. The Afghan National Army is multi-ethnic and, from every report I've seen growing daily in competence and effectiveness. This is a land crushed by nearly a century of perpetual conflict, violence, and terror. They need basic utilities. They need roads built in a peaceful environment. We'll need years of steady investment and hand-holding of their politicians to show them to put a premium on good governance rather than power.

As General McCaffrey puts it: "[Afghanistan] is an attempt to create a state, not battle to save one."

Don't expect this stuff to be pushed by the press, however. In the usual fashion, European allies and their acquiescent press will move from strong supportive rhetoric to sniveling second-guessing quite quickly. It's easy to talk strong about back-burner issues.

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