Kaplan's Fight Against A Manhunt

Robert Kaplan's piece in the New York Times, "A Manhunt or A Vital War?", gave me a lot to mull over. While I think he's correct in stating that there's a longer-termed interest in AfPak than capturing Bin Laden, I think he's missing something in his argument.

One of the perils of a democracy is that its populace ultimately drives its policy. Often a nation can, albeit slowly and haphazardly, reach the best possible domestic position. This is in part due to the fact that the people are constantly receiving the input of data required for good decision-making, e.g. the voters will, upon seeing high gas prices, push for more aggressive energy policies.

In foreign policy, however, the required data is often difficult to acquire, whether due to biased coverage, geographical distance, or different perspectives. In other words, while I can go down to the Conoco and see $4.09/gallon gas for myself, to understand the perils of NE Afghanistan requires I read the writings of a soldier/reporter/foreign national with whom I might share zero common experiences.

What I'm trying to get at, I suppose, is that Kaplan overestimates the cohesiveness-of-thought of the U.S. public. While I agree with his view that it's a Vital War, many Americans will lack the patience and education to see this as much more than a Manhunt. Even worse for Kaplan's goals, the U.S. is the most patient nation in the world in re: AfPak: the rest of Europe lost patience with the war years ago.

The American populace has been historically amenable to the idea of nation-building. The North helped (somewhat) rebuild the South, The Marshall Plan practically rebuilt Europe, the U.S. created modern Japan, &c. But do you notice a common thread? We had already achieved tactical victory in each of those examples. There's never been an example of a sustained joint exercise of civil construction and military engagement. That will take a lot of patience.

Combine that with the extreme distance of AfPak, the dearth of a shared cultural-experience via substantial immigration, and the possible recession looming, Kaplan should be worried that once we "get our man", the clamor will be to "bring the boys home."